Domestic Chana Market Overview – Positive Trend likely in Short-term but Upside may Remain Limited in Longer Run

Chana prices in the country have fallen in recent weeks and seem to stabilize now. As prices have fallen much below the Minimum Support price of Rs 4875/qtl, most farmers and stockists are not mood of further sale in the wholesale market as of now. NAFED has stopped procurement in Haryana but continues procurement in the state of MP. The Government Agency has extended its procurement deadline to July month. The NAFED has a role in execution of the Indian Government’s pulse policies, and is responsible for the buying pulses and oilseeds at minimum support prices, as well managing national buffer stocks of pulses.  

From a quarter’s perspective there will be higher possibility for an upside pull, say an upward movement of Rs.400-500 per quintal from current prices, as per trade sources, ahead of festive season demand, improving stocking interest from easing lockdown restrictions and stability Besan consumption during the ongoing rainy season. In longer run it is difficult to say whether prices can sustain above 4600/4700 levels during early part of year 2021. Big carryover from previous year and ample availability of this current inventory seems to be the limiting factor against chances of any sharp rise in prices from broader perspective.  

Trade sources say that at present NAFED has stocks of 1.3 million tonnes (Mt) of chickpeas The New-crop production from India’s March-April Rabi (winter-crop) harvest has been estimated by NAFED at 10.09Mt. Therefore considering India’s annual Desi chickpea consumption of 9.6Mt, available supply in the country will be enough to balance Indian population.  

Till now monsoons have been satisfactory, therefore improving planting outlook for the coming season. In India, Chana is grown in the Rabi season and its sowing takes place during October-December. The maturity period for Desi Chana is 95-105 days and for Kabuli Chana it ranges form 100-110 days. The harvesting is done during the months of February-April when the leaves start drying and shedding. This also implies that import prospects from Australia will lower for the current year because of Indian Chana supply estimates surpassing demand outlook. India is traditionally Australia’s biggest chickpea market, and it is quite possible that India’s continuing absence of buying interest for Australian Chana will be prompting the countries exporters to look for other markets such as Bangladesh and Pakistan. In fact adequate supply availability in the country may discourage import prospects from African nations as well in coming months.  

Prices of Superior Grades of Desi Chana at Bikaner Mandi this month