The distinguished PIPOC 2023 conference was addressed by Mr. Sudhakar Desai, President of the Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA). Mr. Desai, an expert in the industry, delved into the pivotal dynamics of the Indian market and its profound influence on the global vegetable oil market.
During his address, Mr. Desai highlighted the huge surge in Indian vegetable oil imports, reaching a record-breaking 16.9 million metric tons (MMT) during the 22/23 oil year. This remarkable increase after 2 years of de-growth was attributed to the attractive low prices in the market, which not only triggered substantial stock build up in the pipeline but also stimulated a big bounce back in consumption.
Mr. Desai forecasted a normal consumption growth to resume for the 23/24 oil year, at about 2.8 percent with the total consumption reaching 25.20 MMT.
In his forward-looking analysis, Mr. Desai projected that Indian imports would be about 16.20 MMT for the oil year 23/24, of this total, palm oil import is expected to reach 9 million tons, while soft oil imports are projected to be around 7.12MMT.
Furthermore, Mr. Desai forecasts Malaysia's palm oil production to rise to 18.85 MMT from last year's 18.61 marking an increase of 240 k metric tons, whereas Indonesia's production is expected to remain steady at 49.26 MMT. While Malaysia will witness a stock build-up of approximately 2.7 MMT, the market is anticipated to transition to tighter-end stocks by April/May 2024.
In terms of market pricing, Mr. Desai’s outlook on prices was that Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) will fluctuate within the range of 3600-3900 for the next three months. He also highlighted the possibility of prices rising to 4200 by March 2024 due to the tightening stock situation, particularly in Malaysia.
Mr. Sudhakar Desai's comprehensive analysis at PIPOC 2023 brought out the intricate Indian dynamics influencing the global vegetable oil market, providing invaluable insights for industry stakeholders.
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About IVPA:
The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) founded in 1977, is a leading industry association committed to promoting and safeguarding the interests of vegetable oil Producers’ in India. With a dedicated focus on sustainable growth and industry advocacy, IVPA plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of the Indian vegetable oil sector.
