According to a State Bank of India (SBI) research study, India's Covid second wave peak could occur in the third week of May. According to the survey, the recovery rate in different countries continues to improve at various peaks. However, the recovery rate in India increased to 97.3 until mid-February of this year, after which it began to decline and recently fell to 85.
"If we consider that the second wave peak is reached when the recovery rate is about 78 percent to 79 percent, then the peak may be further away in May, according to our model. According to Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, "our model indicates that the projected peak time is 96 days from February 15th, suggesting that the peak will occur in the third week of May."
It should be noted that, as of now, we are progressively adding about 15000 more cases than the previous day's high, though such figures are difficult to forecast, according to SBI research's notice.
In the first wave, UP and Maharashtra reached their peak before the national peak. In the current second wave, new cases in Maharashtra seem to be stabilizing, but the share of cases in various other states (Chhattisgarh, MP, Gujarat) has increased, and these are showing an increase in regular new cases. According to the study, if other states follow Maharashtra's lead and take strict measures to monitor the spread, the national peak could occur within two weeks of Maharashtra's peak.
SBI Research lowered its growth forecast for FY22 to 10.4% real GDP and 14.3% nominal GDP, citing the current situation of partial/local/weekend lockdowns in almost all states. It mentioned that India's Real GDP was revised downwards from 11 percent to 10.4 percent in FY22.
It reports that the current lockdowns and restrictions have caused a cumulative economic loss of Rs 1.5 lakh crore, with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan accounting for 80% of the total. According to the study, Maharashtra alone accounts for 54 percent.
