The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that India will remain the largest rice exporter globally in the 2024-25 period, with exports anticipated to reach 18 million tonnes. This marks an increase of 1.5 million tonnes from the previous year, positioning India to account for over a third of the global rice trade. The rise in exports is attributed to a significant increase in rice production and substantial stockpiles, despite some trade-restrictive measures.
Global rice production is set to achieve a record high of 527.6 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 10.3 million tonnes from the previous year. India is expected to see the most significant year-on-year production increase, contributing significantly to this global surge. China is also forecasted to boost its rice production, with both nations together producing more than half of the world's rice.
Other major rice-producing countries, including Indonesia, Burma, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are also projected to see larger harvests, further supporting the global production increase. World rice consumption is forecasted to reach a new peak of 526.4 million tonnes, an increase of 4.8 million tonnes from the previous year. India's rice consumption is projected to hit a record 120 million tonnes, driven by the government’s ongoing public distribution programs.
Conversely, China's rice consumption is expected to decline for the third consecutive year due to a reduced use of rice as a substitute for coarse grains in animal feed. Despite this, rising populations in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East are expected to drive continued growth in rice consumption in these regions.
Global rice stocks are forecasted to increase by 1.2 million tonnes, reaching 176.1 million tonnes. China and India will collectively hold 80 percent of these stocks, thanks to their government stockholding programs. Specifically, China will account for 59 percent and India for 21 percent of global rice stocks.
In the United States, ending stocks are projected to rise by 12 percent due to large carry-in stocks and record imports. Overall, stock levels in major rice-exporting countries are expected to rebound, providing a stable outlook for global rice availability.
