Ajay Sahai, the Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), predicts that merchandise exports may reach between USD 495 billion to USD 500 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2024, with services exports potentially hitting USD 400 billion. Sahai added that the demand for Indian exports in several foreign markets continues to be robust.
However, in light of the potential consequences of the Ukraine crisis and a global recession, Trade Minister Piyush Goyal advised exporters to explore new markets. "The times ahead are going to be very, very tough," Goyal said late Wednesday at an industry gathering, warning of the conflict's consequences.
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an export target of USD 2 trillion by 2030, with incentives to expand exports of electronics, engineering, pharmaceuticals, and other items. Over the last two years, India's exports have surged by more than USD 200 billion, owing to a surge in software, mobile exports, and agricultural and petroleum products.
However, exports of engineering, diamonds, and jewellery have decreased in recent months. shipments of agricultural, petroleum, and electronic items have remained robust in Western markets due to pricing issues, but shipments to Asian and Middle Eastern countries have increased significantly, according to exporters.
Sahai, who was part of a 50-member business group to Russia last week, said there was a surge in demand for Indian commodities, notably food, following Western sanctions imposed in response to the Ukraine war.
"Indian exporters are optimistic that both countries will soon work out a mechanism allowing payments in local currencies, which will facilitate shipments of Indian goods to Russia," Sahai added.
However, Indian authorities have stated that Russia is hesitant to accept rupee payments for its oil supplies. India has not explicitly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, instead calling for talks to end hostilities.
